Mbeere North’s upcoming by-election has taken a sharper turn after new opinion numbers placed the two leading candidates in a statistical tie, underscoring how unpredictable the contest has become.
The figures, released by Mizani Africa, show Leonard Wa Muthende and Newton Karish separated by only two percentage points, a gap well within the survey’s stated margin of error.
According to Mizani Africa, Wa Muthende stands at 44.6 percent while Karish follows at 42.4 percent, highlighting a race where neither side can confidently claim the lead.
The polling firm noted that the narrow spread makes the contest highly sensitive to turnout patterns, ward-level dynamics, and the momentum of the final campaign days.
This aligns with the region’s history of competitive polls, where small shifts have previously altered electoral outcomes.
While the contest is largely defined by the two frontrunners, a third candidate, Duncan Mbui, holds 5.7 percent in the survey.
His numbers remain significantly lower than those of the top contenders, a trend analysts say reinforces the two-horse nature of the race.
The undecided bloc, estimated at 7.3 percent, has emerged as a decisive factor and could tilt the final tally depending on last-minute voter decisions.
Mbeere North, located in Embu County, has experienced tight races in recent election cycles, partly due to its diverse political loyalties and shifting party influence.
The by-election itself follows Kenya’s broader trend of competitive constituency races, where local leaders and party networks play a major role in voter mobilisation. Observers say these dynamics are likely to shape how the remaining campaign period unfolds.
Mizani Africa, which shared its findings on X, described the current standings as evidence of a finely balanced electoral environment.
The firm also pointed out that campaign mobilisation in key wards could prove decisive, especially where turnout historically varies between polling centres. As campaigns intensify outreach, both camps are expected to prioritise undecided voters and areas with traditionally low turnout.
The by-election will offer another test of voter engagement in the post-2022 electoral period, where turnout in several constituencies has fluctuated amid shifting political allegiances.
With the survey suggesting no clear favourite, attention now turns to how the candidates’ final push will influence voter sentiment before polling day.
Election observers and local administrators have urged residents to follow campaign updates closely and participate in the vote, emphasising that close races often hinge on marginal differences.