The results of Thursday’s mini-elections have reignited debate over the feasibility of unseating Kenya’s ruling government, according to former Lake Victoria Basin Board chairman Odoyo Owidi.
Speaking on social media, Owidi highlighted the entrenched advantages of incumbency and voter loyalty, drawing parallels with broader African political trends.
Owidi noted that in Kenya’s political history, sitting presidents have rarely been defeated, citing former President Daniel arap Moi, who never lost an election during his tenure.
He argued that these outcomes underscore the challenges facing a fragmented opposition and the need for long-term strategic planning.
“Kenya’s united opposition must either reconcile itself, on principle, to remaining in opposition until 2032 when the incumbent steps aside, or consider working within a broad-based government,” Owidi wrote on X.
He compared Kenya to other African countries, where electoral upsets against incumbents are uncommon, pointing to exceptions such as Zambia and Malawi.
The analyst also cautioned against overreliance on younger voters, particularly Gen Z, in shaping election outcomes.
Owidi emphasized that age-based support is secondary to community ties and local political affiliations, noting that many active voices on social media lack registered voter cards.
“Elections are won at the ballot box, not through online ‘noise,’” he added.
Kenya’s mini-elections have seen varied turnout and engagement, often reflecting local dynamics rather than national trends.