Nairobi’s 2025 gubernatorial contest is taking a new shape after a fresh survey by Mizani Africa placed Embakasi North MP James Gakuya ahead of other high-profile contenders.
The poll, released in November 2025, indicates that Gakuya currently commands 33.3 percent support, positioning him as the frontrunner in a race expected to tighten as the election cycle advances.
The findings suggest a notable shift in Nairobi’s political dynamics, where sitting MPs and non-incumbent aspirants have traditionally struggled to dislodge sitting governors.
Mizani Africa attributes Gakuya’s current advantage to voter perceptions of consistent development work, a grounded political style, and what respondents described as reliability in public engagements.
These attributes appear to have elevated his visibility across wards beyond his home constituency.
According to the survey, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino follows with 21.7 percent, retaining traction among youthful and middle-income voters who have long formed the backbone of his political base.
His continued prominence reflects a broader trend where digitally savvy leaders remain influential in Nairobi’s rapidly urbanizing electorate.
Governor Johnson Sakaja scores 19.9 percent in the poll, a result that signals possible challenges for his re-election strategy.
Nairobi incumbents have historically faced pressure on service delivery—particularly waste management, transport, and licensing—and the survey suggests that voters are actively weighing alternatives ahead of the 2025 elections.
Businesswoman Agnes Kagure ranks fourth with 14.1 percent, a performance that underscores her ability to remain competitive despite lacking an incumbent position or a parliamentary seat.
Kagure has previously been associated with city politics and continues to attract attention as voters explore non-establishment options.
Mizani Africa emphasizes that the results reflect the views of respondents at the time of data collection and do not amount to a prediction of the final outcome.