Economist Ephraim Njega has suggested that Kenya’s political past shows a consistent trend where soft-spoken and cautious politicians often succeed in clinching the presidency, unlike their more outspoken or confrontational counterparts.
In a post shared on his Facebook page, Njega analyzed patterns from the country’s leadership transitions, arguing that figures with a calm and non-threatening image tend to attract broader support.
He pointed out that Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka fits this mold, describing him as a leader whose perceived indecisiveness may actually be his greatest political advantage.
Njega noted that from the era of Jomo Kenyatta to Mwai Kibaki, Kenya has repeatedly elevated leaders viewed as moderate rather than revolutionary.
“Kibaki was once called General Kiguoya for his calm nature, yet he became president,” Njega wrote.
He added that Daniel arap Moi’s rise to power also followed a similar pattern, as his rivals at the time underestimated his political resilience.
The economist explained that voters in Kenya often equate stability with safety, preferring leaders who appear less likely to disrupt the system.
This, he said, makes politicians like Kalonzo more acceptable across diverse political and ethnic lines.
“Kalonzo doesn’t evoke strong hostility, even among those who disagree with him,” he wrote, adding that this quality could help him consolidate support if he runs in 2027.
Past elections have shown that leaders perceived as too radical or unpredictable tend to struggle in appealing to the middle ground.
Kalonzo, a seasoned politician who has served as vice president and held multiple cabinet roles, has often been labeled “indecisive” by critics.
However, his allies argue that his patient and diplomatic approach could help unify voters frustrated by political polarization.
Njega concluded that the ruling Kenya Kwanza administration should not underestimate Kalonzo’s potential.
“History shows that those dismissed as weak often surprise the nation,” he said, warning that ignoring such figures has backfired before.