Kenya’s political terrain ahead of the 2025 elections is being shaped by enduring regional loyalties and the rise of influential mid-tier parties, according to a new analysis by Mizani Africa.
The report highlights how national dominance by the ruling party coexists with strong local support for smaller, region-focused political movements.
The United Democratic Alliance (UDA), led by President William Ruto, maintains its control across traditional strongholds. Rift Valley leads with 56.3% of voter preference, followed closely by North Eastern at 49.5%, while the party also performs strongly in Coast, Nyanza, and Western regions.
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), historically the main opposition party, continues to hold significant sway in Nyanza, commanding 55.8% support. Coastal counties register 39.6%, while Nairobi and Western show moderate backing at 24.7% and 27.3%, respectively.
Despite internal leadership adjustments and shifting alliances, ODM’s regional base remains resilient.
Emerging parties are carving notable space in the political landscape. The Democratic Central Party (DCP) has become a formidable force in Mt. Kenya, capturing 37.3% support and positioning itself as a key contender in central Kenya.
Jubilee Party, though smaller nationally with 9.9%, maintains strongholds in Mt. Kenya, Rift Valley, and Nairobi, reflecting pockets of consistent support despite reduced national relevance.
Regionalized dominance is particularly evident with Wiper Party, which holds 52.7% backing in Lower Eastern.
Mizani Africa’s survey highlights a political map that blends national leadership with strong local identities.
Voter preferences suggest that while UDA under President Ruto leads nationally, upcoming elections will likely feature contests where regional power brokers and emerging parties play pivotal roles, shaping both parliamentary representation and presidential coalitions.