A new assessment by Mizani Africa is offering an early look at how the opposition field may shape up ahead of the 2027 General Election, placing Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka at the front of the pack.
The survey, shared by the research firm on X, highlights regional strengths and voter preferences that could influence coalition building in the coming years.
According to Mizani Africa, Kalonzo leads the national tally with a 39.6 percent rating. His strongest backing is in Lower Eastern, where he receives 73.9 percent support, but the data also points to meaningful traction in Nairobi, Mt. Kenya, the Coast and the Rift Valley.
These numbers suggest that the long-serving politician, who has previously contested under large national coalitions, continues to benefit from a broad political network established over multiple election cycles.
The findings place former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr. Fred Matiang’i in second position at 22.5 percent. Mizani attributes the bulk of this support to South Nyanza, where he records 67.5 percent, in addition to scattered support in Nairobi and parts of Nyanza.
Although Matiang’i has remained largely out of the political spotlight since leaving office, his ranking signals persistent regional loyalty from constituencies that backed him during his tenure in government.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, placed third at 13.1 percent, shows strong numbers in Mt. Kenya with a regional score of 33.3 percent.
His limited appeal outside the region, as highlighted in the poll, comes amid ongoing national debates about succession dynamics within Kenya Kwanza and Mt. Kenya’s future role in national politics.
The findings also reflect broader questions about how sitting government leaders are perceived within hypothetical opposition matchups.
Other names included in the survey — Martha Karua, former Chief Justice David Maraga, Eugene Wamalwa, George Natembeya and Okiya Omtatah — register lower national influence.
Mizani Africa notes that their modest showings reflect the current dispersal of opposition figures following the 2022 polls, when coalition structures such as Azimio faced internal shifts and reduced activity.