Lawyer Wahome Thuku has suggested that the United Opposition faces a more difficult path in the 2027 General Election due to two events he believes reshaped the country’s political landscape.
In a comment posted on X, Thuku said the coalition had once been certain of defeating President William Ruto but now confronts a more complex environment ahead of the next polls.
Thuku highlighted the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and the death of ODM leader Raila Odinga as the incidents that altered that earlier confidence.
He said those developments disrupted the opposition’s planning and removed key variables that previously appeared favourable.
According to his statement, the coalition’s early optimism had been based on the political climate during Ruto’s initial months in office.
Gachagua’s removal from office not only altered the leadership structure within the Kenya Kwanza administration but also affected regional alignments, particularly in the vote-rich Mt Kenya bloc.
The region has historically influenced the balance of national elections, and Gachagua’s impeachment created uncertainty around its political posture heading into 2027.
Raila Odinga’s death added another challenge for opposition leaders as they began recalibrating their national agenda.
Odinga had been a central figure in Kenyan politics for decades, shaping alliances, voter mobilisation, and the overall direction of the opposition.
His absence has pushed the coalition to reassess how it will unify its structures and maintain countrywide presence in the coming election cycle.
In his remarks, Thuku said that without the two events, the opposition would have been “100 percent sure” of defeating President Ruto in the 2027 polls.
His assessment has contributed to ongoing discussion within political circles on the state of the United Opposition and the extent to which it must redefine its strategy.
With less than two years until the elections, conversations around leadership consolidation and regional partnerships are expected to intensify.